DonotLetOurVisionbeBlockedbyFloatingClouds--WorldSituationin2020fromthePerspectiveofChangesUnseeninACenturyAReviewofWorldSituation2020isdestinedtobeextraordinary.Theoverallworldsituationofthisyearcanberoughlysummedupasatriple“three”.1.ChangesunseeninacenturyandthecentennialjourneyThefirst“three”arethreemajoreventsthatcaninfluencetheinternationalpattern.Thefirsteventisthepandemicunseeninacentury.TheoutbreakofCOVID-19isa“blackswan”incident.Itsdestructivepowerandinfluenceareasgreatasaworldwar.Ithappensinaneraofglobalizationandinformationization.Therefore,itsrapidspreadnotonlyhasaprofoundimpactontheworldeconomyandinternationalpolitics,butalsochangespeople’swaysoflifeandbehaviors.Theboundarybetweentraditionalandnon-traditionalsecurityhasbecomeincreasinglyblurred,andthecorrelated,transnationalnatureanddiversityofsecurityissueshavebecomemoreprominent.Thisisthenewrealityofinternationalpolitics.Thesecondistheelectionunseeninacentury.ThereweremanytwistsandturnsintheprocessoftheU.S.presidentialelectionin2020,anditsendingismysterious.Alsothein-depthpoliticalproblems,serioussocialproblemsandgovernanceabilityproblemsexposedthroughitareunprecedentedinAmericanpolitics.Theelectionwilleventuallyend,butallkindsofchaosaftertheelectionwillbedifficulttoend.Inadditiontothealmostout-of-controlepidemic,althoughBidenisambitious,itwillbedifficultforhimto“unite”theUnitedStates,letalonetomaketheU.S.“leadtheworldagain”.ThethirdisChina’srejuvenation,movingfromitsfirstcentennialgoaltothenewjourneyofachievingthesecond.ThesuccessfulconveningoftheFifthPlenarySessionofthe19thCentralCommitteeoftheCommunistPartyofChinahaskick-startedanewjourneyofbuildingamodernsocialistcountryinanall-roundway.Thisisanothermajorstrategicdeploymentofepoch-makingsignificanceinthehistoryofChina’sdevelopmentandatouchofbrightcolorintheoverallgloomofglobalpoliticsandeconomy.2.AcceleratedresurgeofgeopoliticsThesecond“three”arethree“minorevents”thatimpactregionalpatterns.Theseeventsareminorwhencomparedwiththeabove-mentionedthree“majorevents”;shadowedorconcealedbythethree“majorevents”--threeeventsthatwerenotminoryetbecame“trivial”in2020.ThefirsteventisthewarbetweenAzerbaijanandArmenia,whichbrokeoutbecauseoftheNakaconflict.Azerbaijan,ArmeniaandGeorgiaarenotonlythejunctionofEurasia,butalsotheintersectionoftheMiddleEastandRussia.Theimportanceoftheirgeographiclocationssisself-evident.Inaddition,ArmeniaisaChristiancountry,AzerbaijanisanIslamiccountry,GeorgiaisanOrthodoxcountry,andthelanguagesofthethreecountriesaredifferent.TheNakaconflictisnotonlyaterritorialdisputebetweentwosmallcountries,butshouldbeexaminedinthecontextoftheglobalgeo-sensitivezoneandtheresurgenceof“clashofcivilizations”.Whatismorethought-provokingisthefactthatRussia,whichhastroopsstationedinArmenia,didnothelpatthebeginning,andtheUnitedStatesalsowatchedstandingby.Onthecontrary,TurkeygaveitsfullsupporttoAzerbaijan,makingthelatterwin.Thisshowsthatinthecontextofbigpowergaming,geopoliticsisacceleratingitsresurgence,regionalconflictsaredifficulttostop,andmedium-sizedpowersareemerging.Itischillingtothinkoftheoriginsoftwoworldwars.ThesecondisthesuspensefulthrillerdramastagedintheMiddleEastaroundtheIranissue.DisasterspileduponeonanotheronIran.Atthebeginningoftheyear,QassemSuleimani,commanderoftheQudsForce,wasmurderedinaprecisionmissilestrikeinIraq;neartheendofthisyear,MohsenFakhrizadeh,atopnuclearscientist,waskilledontheoutskirtsofTehran.Atthesametime,withthehelpoftheUnitedStates,IsraelhasestablisheddiplomaticrelationswithBahrain,theUnitedArabEmiratesandSudan,whichisahistoricbreakthroughinArab-Israelirelations.However,itmakesIranmoreisolated.WhetherIranwilltakerisksonthenuclearweaponissueinordertosurvive,andwhethertheUnitedStates,IsraelandevenArabcountrieswilltolerateitareallbigissuesworthyofattention.Geopolitical,military,andenergysecurityaswellasotherissuesrelatedtothesituationintheMiddleEastareofglobalinfluenceandsignificance.ThethirdischangesinthepoliticalecologyofSoutheastAsia.In2020,fromitsoutbreakinFebruarytoitsreemergenceinJuly,theanti-governmentstreetmovementssurroundingthe“constitutionalamendment”andotherdemandsinThailandarestillcontinuing.SoutheastAsiaseemstobeexperiencinganewsocio-politicalwavecharacterizedbyoppositiontofamilypoliticsandmilitarypolitics.ItseemsthatSoutheastAsia,deeplyinfluencedbyConfucianism,HinduismandIslam,aswellasbyEuropeanandAmericanfactors,hascometoanotherimportantmoment.3.Moreimportanttobefuture-orientedinthe“Post-truthEra”Thethird“three”arethreemajortrendsoflong-termimpacts.First,anewroundofscientificandtechnologicalrevolutioniscoming,andthescienceandtechnologygamesamongmajorpowersarebecomingincreasinglyfierce.Markedbybigdata,blockchain,artificialintelligence,quantumtechnology,andlifesciences,thefourthtechnologicalrevolutionisroundthecorner.Whoevermasterstheinitiativeinthistechnologicalrevolutionwillwinthefuture.ItisararehistoricalopportunityforChina,whichhasmissedthepreviousthreescientificandtechnologicalrevolutions,buthascaughtupwiththisone.Butmeanwhile,thesuppressionChina’shigh-techindustryisexperiencingisunprecedented,indicatingthattechnologywillbeanewbattlefieldfortheChina-US,eveninternationalcompetition.Second,the“ebb”ofglobalizationisintertwinedwiththeupsurgeofregionalization,andglobalgovernanceisfacingmajorchallenges.TheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)isfacingchallengesfromunilateralismandprotectionism.Correspondingly,variousregional,sub-regional,trilateralandevenbilateralarrangementshavebecomepopular.Inthenewroundofreshuffleandoveralllayoutofglobaleconomicandtraderules,allcountriesarestrivingtofindtheirpositions.Third,withvarioussocialthoughtscontestingeachother,the“post-truthera”isthought-provoking.Thetheoryof“clashofcivilizations”hascomeback,andxenophobia,extremism,andadventurismhaveprevailed.ThesecontradictionsaremorefullymanifestedintheEuropeanandAmericanworld,andtheirbackwasheffectsandchainreactionscannotbeunderestimated.Ontheotherhand,itisdifficulttotelltruefromthefalseintheinternetage.Itseemsthattruthisnotimportantanymore.Instead,whatmattersiswhohastherighttospeak.Thisisexactlythedistortivenatureoftheso-called"post-truthera".Inthefaceofthesestrangephenomenathathavenotbeenseeninacentury,onlybymaintainingconcentrationandrefusingimpetuousness,canourvisionbenotblockedbycloudsandcanwefinallywinthegame.ContributedbyYuanPeng,directorofChinaInstitutesofContemporaryInternationalRelationsTranslatedbyPanMeng